[PAA-Discuss] Fwd: [L-R-Converg] A conservative's solution to the NK problem

[Jimmy Dunne]

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Historian Andrew Bacevich, author of this piece, has endorsed the FPA
resolution.

Barry Klein

*"Our purpose should not be regime change in Pyongyang or forcing Kim
Jong-un to abandon his nuclear weapons program. *
*Both of those may be desirable. Neither is worth a large-scale war."*

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/seven-steps-to-a-
saner-u-s-policy-towards-north-korea/?mc_cid=5ab8b04933&mc_eid=1b303129aa

Seven Steps to a Saner U.S. Policy Towards North KoreaBut is the Trump
Administration too dysfunctional to grasp this?
By ANDREW J. BACEVICH
<http://www.theamericanconservative.com/author/andrew-j-bacevich> • September
8, 2017
<http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/seven-steps-to-a-saner-u-s-policy-towards-north-korea/>

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   <http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/seven-steps-to-a-saner-u-s-policy-towards-north-korea/?print=1>
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   <http://www.instapaper.com/hello2?url=http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/seven-steps-to-a-saner-u-s-policy-towards-north-korea/&title=Seven+Steps+to+a+Saner+U.S.+Policy+Towards+North+Korea&description=But+is+the+Trump+Administration+too+dysfunctional+to+grasp+this%3F>

Credit: Shutterstock/Anait
<https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/17-april-2017-kim-jongun-portrait-622500137?src=p5a9vfCjhU_tW802iZXCfg-1-4>

There are seven postulates that ought to inform U.S. policy regarding North
Korea.

*First, our objective.* Nothing is more important than to be clear about
what we are trying to accomplish. Our purpose should be to provide for our
own security and that of our allies, especially South Korea and Japan,
while avoiding war. Our purpose should not be regime change in Pyongyang or
forcing Kim Jong-un to abandon his nuclear weapons program. Both of those
may be desirable. Neither is worth a large-scale war.

*Second, the adversary.* Kim Jong-un is a loathsome dictator who presides
over a repressive state that keeps its impoverished people in bondage. That
said, and notwithstanding his consistently provocative behavior, no
evidence exists to suggest that Kim is irrational. Of course, speaking with
absolute certainty on these matters is impossible. Yet the pattern of Kim’s
behavior is not that of someone courting suicide. It appears far more
likely that, working from a position of extreme weakness, he is employing
one of his very few available assets to ensure the survival of the North
Korean regime. Kim is not “begging for war,” as the U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations foolishly claims. He is merely sabre rattling, hoping
thereby to keep his enemies at bay and to dissuade his few friends from
selling him out.

*Third, the regional context. *The North Korean crisis is a subset of a
much larger development, namely, the ongoing redistribution of power in
East Asia that is rendering obsolete the post-1945 order. Victory in World
War II elevated the United States to the status of regional hegemon, a
status symbolized even today by the presence of U.S. forces in Japan, South
Korea, and outposts such as Guam. China’s rise to great power status poses
a direct challenge to American primacy, while necessarily prompting anxiety
among those accustomed to outsourcing their own security to the United
States. Of far greater moment than North Korea is the challenge of creating
a new regional order that accommodates China without doing great harm to
U.S. interests or creating panic among China’s neighbors. In that regard,
while a war on the Korean Peninsula would be a disaster, a war between
China and the United States would be an unfathomable catastrophe. U.S.
policymakers must never lose sight of that greater danger.

*Fourth, the allies. *U.S. behavior over the past couple of decades has
done little to inspire confidence among our friends and allies. We
specialize of late in starting needless wars that we then cannot finish. We
promise liberation and democracy, but sow chaos. Then we elect the
preposterous Donald Trump president. Small wonder that once reliable allies
think we’ve taken leave of our senses. Affirming that view by blundering
into a needless war in Korea would be the height of folly. To repair
damaged relationships and restore trust in American leadership, it is
essential that the U.S. response to North Korea demonstrate that the United
States remains capable of prudent action undertaken in concert with others
after due consultation. No more our way or the highway. No more you are
either for us or against us. In that regard, overheated rhetoric
threatening “fire and fury like the world has never seen” or making
reference to wars of “total annihilation” is not helpful.

*Fifth, the media. *The national media is obsessed with Trump and is
determined to bring him down. Why pretend otherwise? The attacks that the *New
York Times *and *Washington Post *directed at Richard Nixon back in the
days of Watergate or at Reagan during Iran-Contra seem tame by comparison.
Apart from Fox and a handful of outliers, just about anyone capable of
reaching a wide audience piles on. Trump may well deserve every bit of
obloquy heaped on his head. You won’t find me rising to his defense. Yet
with regard to Korea, hyping the crisis as a way of playing up the gap
between Trump’s Make-America-Great-Again promises and actually existing
reality accomplishes one thing only: It fuels a full-fledged war scare,
which serves only to increase the risk of miscalculation. In any earlier
time, a call from the White House might persuade select editors and
producers to tone down their coverage. In this instance, news executives
who care about the well-being of their country, not to mention the planet
as a whole, might do so of their own volition.

*Sixth, strategy for the near-term. *Experience during the seven decades
since Hiroshima and Nagasaki shows that deterrence works. It can work with
a nuclear-armed North Korea as well. Yet effective deterrence requires not
only possessing a credible retaliatory capability—we’ve got that in
spades—but conveying to a potential attacker and to all other interested
parties an unmistakable intention to respond forcefully to any attack. This
is best accomplished by employing language that is clear and unambiguous.
Back in January 1954, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles put the matter
simply: “The way to deter aggression is for the free community to be
willing and able to respond vigorously at places and with means of its own
choosing.” Dulles was speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations—and to
the Soviet Politburo. To make his point, Dulles had no need to resort to
histrionics. President Trump and his advisers should heed his example.

*Seventh, strategy for the longer term. *Deterrence won’t solve the problem
posed by North Korea, but will keep that problem within manageable bounds.
Making the problem go away will require progress toward the larger
challenge of reconfiguring the distribution of power in East Asia. As
others have noted, the one country with sufficient leverage to influence
North Korean behavior is China. In his first encounter with President Xi
Jinping, Donald Trump seemed to think that Xi would happily do his bidding
and bring Kim Jong-un to heel. That was never going to happen. As a
self-described master at cutting deals, Trump ought to know that Xi will
expect something in return. What does Xi want? Broadly speaking, he wants
recognition of the fact that China has now emerged as a global power of the
first rank. That, in turn, implies hammering out the terms of a new power
sharing arrangement that will provide for the stability of East Asia in the
present century—a Grand Bargain, if you will. Negotiate that Grand
Bargain—a task worthy of a Metternich, a Bismarck, or a John Quincy
Adams—and the North Korea problem subsides into insignificance.

Unfortunately, an administration top heavy with generals, burdened with a
somnolent secretary of state, and headed by a bombastic and unprincipled
chief executive is almost surely incapable of recognizing either the
problem or the opportunity that it faces.

*Andrew Bacevich is *The American Conservative*’s writer-at-large.*

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